Talks and Articles
Myths in Today's Frothy Markets
by Rob Arnott
Myths in
Today's Frothy Mkts-Arnott.mp4
This 35 min presentation was given by Rob Arnott at an
online Money Show. I've watched it several times, usually with sharing
on Zoom with friends and clients. Buy Bottom Bubbles. The equity
market over the next ten years will disappoint. Lots of solid data.
Principles for Navigating Big
Debt Crises by Ray Dalio
Principles For Navigating Big Debt Crises By Ray Dalio.pdf
This pdf is the entire book. The first 68 pages are
an excellent background of classical economic perspectives on macroeconomic
debt levels and recipes for action. His work is based on broad historical
data and analyses. Particularly cogent is how he divides the issues between
countries holding the reserve currency and countries not so privileged.
A very different orientation is presented by Modern
Monetary Theory. A good 9 minute introduction is provided by economist
Stephanie Kelton at
https://www.cnbc.com/video/2019/03/01/stephanie-kelton-explains-modern-monetary-theory.html.
Can Critical Thinking Subvert
Behavioral Finance?
Critical Thinking Clubs,
November 2018
How can critical thinkers avoid the pitfalls outlined by
Behavioral Finance? How can they take advantage of the foibles in
others' decision-making?
Outline
and Resources: CTC Handout.pdf
Presentation Slides: CTC Nov
2018.pdf
Sample Pivot Table: Pivot Sample.xlsx
Monte
Carlo: Monte Carlo
Planning.pdf, Planning
Input Data.pdf,
Planning2017-30yr.xlsm
Gains from Behavioral Finance
October 12, 2017
Gains Behavioral
Finance.pdf
Instead of merely trying to not fall victim to the human
foibles revealed by behavioral finance, how can we go a step further and
capitalize on all the stupid things investors do?
Liquidity as a Style
December
4, 2015.
Ibbotson-Liquidity as an Investment Style.pdf
Roger Ibbotson et.al. present a compelling case and data
as to why liquidity can produce excess returns even more so than the usual
factors of value, size and momentum.
Style Reversion to the Mean
December 4, 2015.
If Factor Returns Are Predictable_Why is There an Investor Return Gap.pdf
Styles or factors run in predictable cycles, with most
investors exiting and changing managers, funds or investments when they
should be buying. The article was published by Research Affiliates and
is written by Jason Hsu, Ph.D. Below are reports on my endeavors to
test and implement this very provocative article.
Presentation Slides for Twin
Cities AAII Chapter Program
December 3, 2015
AAII Dec 2015.pptx
These are the PowerPoints I used in my presentation to the
local AAII chapter titled "Dangerous Maxims." I also review other
research, some of it described on this site.
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